Diagnosis is strategy

For a strategy to be effective, the process must start with diagnosis. Without a sound diagnosis, strategy becomes nothing more than wild guessing. Yes, strategy involves decision-making—choosing what to retain and what to let go—but these decisions must be grounded in diagnosis. In fact, there's an even simpler truth: diagnosis is strategy.

Asking the question, “What is going on here?” and understanding and clarifying that situation—without making any decisions—is the most crucial part of strategy.

Source: Dave Kellogg @kellblog 's twitter post. More context here on his blog

Both leadership and management are essential for success. Leaders begin by asking and understanding, “What is going on here?” Management, is the art of comprehending the situation and only then making decisions on strategy and tactics.

Reimagining how we 'Learn with Instruction' with AI

In their masterful book, How to Read a Book, authors Mortimer J. Adler and Charles Van Doren observe the difference between two types of learning: learning by instruction and learning by discovery.

They write:

"In the history of education, men have often distinguished between learning by instruction and learning by discovery. Instruction occurs when one person teaches another through speech or writing. We can, however, gain knowledge without being taught. If this were not the case, and every teacher had to be taught what he in turn teaches others, there would be no beginning in the acquisition of knowledge. Hence, there must be discovery—the process of learning something by research, by investigation, or by reflection, without being taught."

- Van Doren, Charles; Mortimer J. Adler. How to Read a Book (p. 12). 

While the act of learning, they clarify, occurs in the mind of the learner in both cases, the process of facilitating that learning is different.

The book was written in 1940, and while many of its concepts remain true to this day, there is one interesting development that I feel puts human evolution at an inflection point.

You may have guessed it—it is AI.

Though there is a chorus of voices proclaiming that AI will completely change the world, I am not a fan of the excessive optimism surrounding it. Neither do I align with the opposing view that AI advancements, such as Generative AI, will bring doom to humanity.

I strongly believe that while humanity may make leaps and bounds in technology, it will ultimately be for the better in the long run—and that the ‘long run’ will truly be long. We often overestimate what can happen in very short time horizons.

However, there is one area that will change dramatically: the process in which human learning occurs due to the advent and growth of AI. This change is tied to the distinction between learning by instruction and learning by discovery.

In 1940, the authors observed a crucial aspect of this difference:

"The reason is that listening is learning from a teacher who is present—a living teacher—while reading is learning from one who is absent. If you ask a living teacher a question, he will probably answer you. If you are puzzled by what he says, you can save yourself the trouble of thinking by asking him what he means. If, however, you ask a book a question, you must answer it yourself. In this respect, a book is like nature or the world. When you question it, it answers you only to the extent that you do the work of thinking and analysis yourself."

- Van Doren, Charles; Mortimer J. Adler. How to Read a Book (p. 14). 

It is this facet of learning that AI is disrupting. Until now, learning by discovery was limited to consuming information with an active mind. Humanity has always sought further learning by instruction to overcome the shortcomings of bookish knowledge. AI is changing this dynamic. Soon, if not already, we will be able to converse with a book or the ideas in a book, seeking clarification and instruction through AI.

Already, using freely available versions of ChatGPT, I am able to have conversations with AI that embody a book or the ideas of an author. With the continued growth of AI, this will become more seamless, allowing different kinds of learning by instruction to occur without the need for a present teacher. This will revolutionize what we understand as the learning process.

Remember, learning still needs to happen in the learner's mind, regardless of whether it is by discovery or instruction. However, I suspect that with AI, the distinction between the two will redefine the role and definition of the instructor.

In some ways, AI seeks to harness the knowledge of books and pull them into the realm of interaction.

50 days of blogging, everyday

In the last 50 days, I have posted a blog post daily. This has been a profound learning experience, as the interconnections of my ideas have come together, allowing me to sustain this daily blog streak. I can see how even a rudimentary application of Sonke Ahrens' "How to Take Smart Notes" Zettelkasten-like system has significantly improved my thinking and writing. It has helped me get past the blank page and find connections between my ideas. Initially skeptical, I now see the value of this approach, even in its simplest form. However, consuming ideas from sources like books, podcasts, conversations, and reflections, and noting them down for review, is crucial. Moving forward, my focus will shift more towards sparking new ideas. While I may not continue the daily blog, I still plan to write as much as possible, as it has become an addictive practice.

As a note-taking aficionado, I use multiple methods to capture and organize my knowledge. Here is a summary of the different types:

To-Do List

I use a systematized to-do list for various recurring tasks:

• Daily Tasks: Activities like doing the daily Wordle, brushing my teeth at night, and taking out the garbage.
• Recurring Appointments: Tasks such as paying bills, calling parents, and calling friends.
• Reminders: For birthdays, anniversaries, and other recurring activities, like backing up my data to the cloud.

I use the free MS To-Do app for this. It is pinned to the top screen of my phone, making it easy to jot down ideas, capture information I hear, and note tasks quickly. I also have a folder for checklists, which helps me stay organized.

Google Keep

Google Keep is my go-to for capturing thoughts, ideas, images, and photos that catch my fancy. When I don’t use MS To-Do for ideas, I turn to Google Keep. It’s like my digital pocket notebook.

I have a separate Google Keep account for journaling and affirmations. When I can't use my iPad Mini for journaling and affirmations, I use Google Keep, typing with my fingers on the virtual keyboard. Instead of mindlessly scrolling, I document my distractions in Google Keep.

OneNote

I use OneNote for:

• Journals: Handwritten entries on my iPad.
• Learning Notes: Documenting book notes, systems, and plans.
• Weekly Plans: Organizing my week.
• Work Profiles: Managing work projects and key details.

Nebo App on iPad Mini

The Nebo app is exclusively for my daily handwritten affirmations. There's something uniquely beneficial about writing things digitally but by hand, making it both useful and accessible.

Obsidian

Obsidian is my "second brain." I am gradually replacing OneNote for all types of learning and note-taking with Obsidian, excluding specific projects. It’s excellent for writing and connecting my thoughts, and I am amazed at how well this system works for me.

Mindomo Mindmaps

Mindomo is my preferred mind-mapping tool, which I use for learning, taking notes, and preparing for interviews. It helps me visualize my ideas and differentiate how I present my learning in interviews and other occasions. It’s superior to word documents or presentations for thinking about the interconnections between ideas.

Paper Pocket Notebooks

I am cultivating a practice of not always being on my phone or screens. Instead, I use pocket notebooks to capture handwritten notes, tasks, and ideas. Eventually all the notes here get transferred to my Obsidian

Work Paper Notebooks

These are dedicated to work-related notes and tasks.

Kindle Highlights

I highlight text in Kindle books and occasionally add notes. For paper books, I prefer taking notes in a separate notebook, as the margins in books are too small for my handwriting.

Where I Publish

• Blog: This blog, Canvas is the destination for all my writing, including daily blogs.
• Instagram: I capture book notes and other content. For the added visual medium and for interactions.
• Twitter/X: I engage in conversations and share retweets/reposts. But I need to explore how I can publish on X for more visibility and traction.

Moving forward, I may not continue the daily blog as I focus on collecting and elevating my ideas, but I still plan to continue writing as much as possible as it is addictive. 

Prophecy tends to be conservative

The problem with prediction is that it is impossible to account for everything and eliminate our biases. Therefore, people who claim to predict the future are often misleading us. Especially because the predictor constantly revises their assumptions based on new evidence. Nassim Taleb articulates this clearly when he says, "we revise our own predictions and intentions unconsciously to match what actually happens. We disguise having been wrong by pretending we were right. This is confirmation bias.”

Another challenge in prediction is how our mind perceives time. Bill Gates famously said, “Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.” This is very true because, given a sufficiently long time period, second and third-order effects of decisions begin to show up, leading to exponentially different outcomes.

When thinking about the future, our imagination is often limited by the past. We don’t know what is possible, so we tend to extrapolate from the past and present. We cannot imagine without it being absurd and therefore edited out if we haven’t seen or experienced it with any degree of certainty. That’s why science fiction is considered fiction and not probability. Good science fiction imagines new things, but the storytelling is based on something we are all familiar with and can relate to.

Prophecy is always conservative. As Arthur C. Clarke said, "If we have learned one thing from the history of invention and discovery, it is that, in the long run—and often in the short one—the most daring prophecies seem laughably conservative.”

However, we can improve our ability to imagine the future. This is where structured methods for thinking about the future, such as scenario planning, come into play. Scenario planning is an excellent practice that helps us push our boundaries beyond our comfort zone and imagine new and alternative futures. Building on Taleb’s wisdom that events are not predictable, but the consequences of actions are more predictable, scenario planning is not about predicting the future but about imagining different alternatives and preparing for them.

As a side note and thought experiment, imagine the magical world of Harry Potter without the prophecy or divination component. Would there be more harmony because Tom Riddle (Voldemort) would not have sought to eliminate Harry in the first place? Boring, I know, from a story perspective, but overall better outcomes in the short and long term!

 

Simplicity is harder than complexity

Le Taureau, is a series of lithographs by Pablo Picasso

Taking complex subjects and simplifying them into abstract forms is a major aspect of Picasso’s art. This concept is a skill. People who are successful in life have this in common: they are able to break down the complexity and simplify things for themselves and for others. Simplicity is harder than complexity. We often think it’s the other way around.

“I have made this longer than usual because I have not had time to make it shorter.” – Blaise Pascal

Brand purpose is broken

Should brands have a purpose? The answer is yes. Brands are important assets in the modern world, and they should aim to do good. But where it gets tricky is whether they should actively market this purpose. I am not so sure.

When did brands have to become religions? Are brand managers ethic philosophers, and are the users of a brand a congregation?

A simpler way to think about this could be: founders have purpose; brands need to stick to positioning. Purpose is not a differentiating factor. The way it is being talked about, purpose is seen as a higher order, lofty ideal of social good, which means that all brands will tend to address the same gamut of issues plaguing society. While there are enough issues plaguing society, for brand purpose to matter, there will have to be a prioritization of which issue to tackle, starting from the top down – the most difficult problem first. These days, the consensus seems to be sustainability and inequality, and various flavors of these two. When we see it this way, it is not a good idea for many brands to be tackling the same few issues. Remember, brands are vehicles of differentiation. Purpose marketing is reducing that difference and leading us towards commoditization. It's not surprising that we see so many purpose-driven campaigns that all look the same.

Purpose is at best one aspect of positioning, not equal to or above it. It is something that gives a brand momentum. Really successful brands are nothing more than brands that have a sense of momentum and stay ahead of trends. Not all brands need to be challenger brands.

A better way to think about purpose as a facet of positioning is to consider meeting a consumer need. Take sustainability as an example. Consumers are frustrated by their inability to affect issues like sustainability individually. Therefore, at scale, brands can offer consumers a way to feel more capable of contributing to the sustainability cause. This articulation makes sense as it offers a clear role for brand purpose, which is rooted in an actual job to be done for consumers—a genuine tension, not just a stated concern over the environment used for marketing.

Get brand purpose in its right place within brand strategy. Don’t elevate it above strategy.

TOFU mentality - Take Ownership and Follow Up

In both work and life, achieving your goals requires taking ownership. Of your life and of your circumstances. Blame and victimhood offer no value; instead, we must rise above them, take ownership, and actively work toward what we want. However, taking ownership alone is not enough.

The second part of the TOFU mentality—following up—is equally crucial. We must follow up with ourselves and others to make progress on our agenda. As a professional I often see employees and managers, taking responsibility but succumbing to "superhero syndrome." They try to handle everything by themselves in the false hope that they can do it all. They don’t work collaboratively or seek help. This undermines the ownership they take, because these behaviours limits what they can achieve.  This is lack of ‘follow up’ - both with themselves and with others.

Those who persistently take ownership and follow up, with courage, kindness and consistency, are the ones who rise above and become true leaders. 

Motivation checklist to overcome work anxiety

If you are anxious at work, overthinking, and unable to make a decision, here are some ideas to help you get over the nervousness, focus, and move forward:

1. Start: Take one small step on anything, even if it is not critical.
2. Don’t expect conditions to be perfect: Start before you are ready.
3. Remember, work usually gets done: It's very unlikely that you will be cross-examined right now. Just start and then try to delegate.
4. Nobody is thinking about you: In fact, everyone is thinking about themselves.
5. Stop building “if-then” scenarios in your mind: Don’t make maneuvers or think about doing them. Take action. If you must build 'if-then' scenarios, write them out. When you see them, you'll realize how absurd they are.
6. Remind yourself that you can handle it: When fear takes over, reassure yourself that you can handle it. You don’t need to know how; just be confident that you will manage.
7. Think long-term about consequences: If you know what action to take but are worried about the consequences, consider the long-term perspective. Soon, this issue will no longer matter.
8. Cultivate luck and take risks: Take that risk. What's the worst that can happen?

In summary, get out of your mind and start taking action.

Increase the opportunities you have to succeed

Success is not a trick. It is a technique. It’s a technique because success comes from following a system that predisposes one to take actions set up to help them succeed. Instead of asking how one can succeed, one should be putting effort into learning what increases energy and focus. When deployed systematically, this will increase the exposure to opportunities for success.

Philosophy of the future

"Fiction that is fast becoming real is philosophy.” – Yuval Noah Harari

Yuval mentions (something like) this during his conversation on the Tim Ferriss podcast when discussing the power of words. I cannot seem to find the exact quote in the transcript. They discussed how some books, like Brave New World by Aldous Huxley or The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams, are more philosophy cleverly disguised as science fiction. The same can be said of shows like Black Mirror, which uniquely holds up a mirror to society today by visualising an imaginary world, which is fast becoming reality, but feels just a bit shocking today.

Scenario planning in the domain of futures thinking aims to achieve a similar effect. By systematically observing the present and past, and making calculated imaginations of the future, futures thinking allows individuals, organizations, and societies to prepare for different alternatives and take action to steer toward a preferred future. 

This kind of fiction is, therefore, a philosophy of the future.